🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."