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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.