Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.