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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.