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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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